To stop Trump, we need 3 Republicans in the House to vote with us

Here’s how you—yes, you—can help us get them

In my last Substack, I laid out several practical steps we can take to stop Trump’s and the Republicans’ plans to gut Medicaid and SNAP. These safety net programs help make sure no American has to do without basic medical care or food.

But 1 step in particular has become paramount: we need 3 Republican Congresspeople to vote against the cuts.

We know we don’t yet have even that small amount of Republican support. We know because on February 25, in the first vote on Trump’s budget in the House of Representatives, 100% of the Democrats stood firm but only 1 Republican voted with them. Trump won the vote 217 to 215.

So while it’s valuable to reach out to every member of Congress, if we don’t get support from 3 House Republicans, we won’t win. And we need to win.

Why we need to win

We need to win for three reasons.

First, we can’t allow the Republicans to gut Medicaid. It protects 72 million Americans who otherwise wouldn’t have health care. Medicaid is there when anyone needs it, literally from birth until death. It pays for almost half the births in this country. It pays for over 60% of the nursing home costs for our oldest and most disabled. And it pays for the crucial stuff in between: being able to go to the doctor when you’re sick, and getting prescriptions filled.

Second, if voters knew Medicaid was at risk, they wouldn’t want to go along. No-one in this country voted to hurt mothers and babies or to evict grandma and grandpa from nursing homes and put them out in the street just so billionaires would get a tax cut.

Third, we have to stop Trump on something or he will keep pressing for more and more outrageous and cruel policies. This is our best shot so far to stop something big and bad from moving forward.

Can any of us really make a difference and get us closer to a win?

Maybe you’re thinking: how will you, personally, win over a Republican Congressperson?

Here’s the answer.

There are 20 House Republicans we have a decent chance to win over.

We have a chance with these 20 because either:

· they are on the record as caring about Medicaid and being concerned about the proposed cuts; or

· they are going to face a very close re-election campaign in 2026 when they will have to defend wildly unpopular budget cuts that were passed only to give the very richest Americans a gigantic tax break.

Here are those 20 Republicans, starting with the most promising

Tier 1: they have recently and publicly expressed support for Medicaid AND will almost certainly face a highly competitive Democrat in the November 2026 election

· David Valadao, CA-22, Bakersfield, San Joaquin Valley; almost 2/3 of the people in his district rely on Medicaid for their medical care

· Juan Ciscomani, AZ-6, Tuscon, Sierra Vista

· Rob Bresnahan, PA-8, Scranton, NE Pennsylvania

· Don Bacon, NE-2, Omaha

Tier 2: they have recently and publicly expressed support for Medicaid, but are unlikely to face a competitive election in 2026

· Monica de la Cruz, TX-15, McAllen

· Tony Gonzales, TX-23, San Antonio

· Nicole Malliotakis, NY-11, Staten Island and South Brooklyn

· Jeff Van Drew, NJ-2, southern New Jersey

Tier 3: their support for Medicaid is uncertain BUT they will almost certainly face a highly competitive election in November 2026

· Marianne Miller-Meeks, IA-1, Davenport, Iowa City, Burlington, Indianola

· Gabe Evans, CO-8, Brighton, Commerce City, Greeley, Johnstown, Northglenn, Thornton

· Ryan Mackenzie, PA-7, Lehigh Valley, Allentown, Bethlehem

· David Shweikert, AZ-1, NE Phoenix, Scottsdale

· Tom Barrett, MI-7, Lansing, part of Oakland County

Tier 4: their support for Medicaid is uncertain BUT they could face a competitive election in November 2026

· Ken Calvert, CA-41, Riverside County, Corona, Menifee, Lake Elsinore, Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage, La Quinta

· Zach Nunn, IA-3, Des Moines, Dallas County, SW Iowa

· John James, MI-10, Rochester, Macomb County, part of Oakland County

· Tom Kean, NJ-7, Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Union and Warren Counties

· Mike Lawler, NY-17, Rockland and Putnam Counties, north Westchester County

· Jen Kiggans, VA-2, Virginia Beach, Suffolk, Franklin

· Derrick Van Orden, WI-3, Eau Claire, LaCrosse, Stevens Point, exurbs of Minneapolis and St. Paul, MN

All Members of Congress pay attention to what they hear from their constituents—the people who live in their districts and can vote them out.

For instance, I live in Los Angeles, represented by a Democrat. My personal opinion won’t matter much to others in Congress elsewhere; I can’t personally vote against them.

But I can potentially have an impact on Republican Congresspeople if I reach out to my family and friends who live in their districts.

To continue the example: my sister Amy lives near Columbus, Ohio in Ohio Congressional District 15. Her Congressman is Mike Carey. In the November 2024 election, he won easily, by more than 10 percentage points. But his district is not a slam-dunk. In 2024, Donald Trump carried it by 9 points; but the Trump-endorsed Republican for U.S. Senate, Bernie Moreno, only won the district by 2 points, 49% to 47%. Carey is a conservative Republican and he just voted on February 25 for the bad budget bill; but it isn’t clear where he stands on Medicaid. His big issue is coal; he’s for it. But compared to all the Republicans in the House, he is average or slightly better than average.

In other words, Carey is a long-shot for us to flip on the budget bill. That’s why he’s not on the list of the 20 Republicans with whom we have the best chance.

But Carey is the Congressman my sister has the best chance to influence. She’s a Democrat, but she’s still a constituent. So why not try? Carey is not identical to Trump. We won’t know if he cares about Medicaid and the safety net until we reach out to him. And Amy might not be the only constituent reaching out to Carey asking for checks and balances on Trump.

Amy also has a story to tell that might matter to Carey. For years until she recently retired, Amy provided mental health care to veterans, many of whom rely on Medicaid and the V.A. for crucial care. Amy can describe what life is really like for these Buckeyes who served our country, including the kind of help many of them need, and why she wanted to help them. Amy can give him a glimpse of reality unknown to him—just as you almost certainly have a story to share about yourself or a family member or friend and their experience trying to preserve their health.

Also: Amy has lived in or near Columbus for the last ten years. She’s not only a constituent, she’s a long-time constituent. This is where she intends to live the rest of her life. And Amy’s Ohio roots go way back to our growing up in Chillicothe, Ohio, an hour south of Columbus.

The photo below, from left to right, shows us kids: our brother Marty at age 6½ holding our (at the time) newborn sister Ivy; then there’s Amy, age 8, and me, age 10.

Further—and probably most important—some of Amy’s friends and neighbors also live in Carey’s district. Probably some are Democrats, some are Republicans, some are independents. Some split their ticket. But maybe they all feel that the health care safety net matters. So if Amy asks several friends to come over to her house on a Saturday, they can write a letter together to Carey to ask for a short meeting to explain what’s on their minds. Then it’s not just one constituent who is concerned. It’s a group of them. And not just a group that signed a petition or a form letter. It’s a group of his voters actually paying attention to what the heck he and the Republicans are doing.

At the very least, their letter will get tallied. And it might lead to more, where Amy and her friends get to talk to the Congressman or one of his staff, either on the phone or in person in the Congressman’s district office. The office is only a short drive from where Amy and her neighbors live.

There is never a guarantee that a meeting like this will change a politician’s mind.

But there is absolutely a guarantee that when we don’t reach out to our Congressperson, they don’t know what we think. They don’t get to consider what we know and believe. They may overlook the human consequences of their vote. And they won’t realize that people in their district are paying attention to this vote.

Here’s the other crucial step: think about all your friends and family who are represented by the 20 Republicans in the House we have the best shot to persuade.

To take our above example to its conclusion: I’m glad I thought of asking my sister Amy to reach out to her Congressperson.

But the next step is for me to pull together some of my Los Angeles friends, where we each bring our phone and anything else that might jog our memory of people we know and love. As we each look through our phones and lists, we will realize we know people who probably have Republican representatives and who may live in some of these crucial districts. It’s not just my sister Amy who has a Republican Congressperson.

I can easily check to see if someone I know is represented by one of those high priority Congresspeople by going to https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative

As we discuss how many people we identified who live in key districts and who we want to call, we can right then begin. We can text our friends with Republican Members of Congress and let them know what we’re doing and ask if what’s a good time for us to call. Here’s the kind of text I would send:

Hey ___, this is Dave, my friends are taking practical action to stop Trump’s terrible budget bill that would hurt mothers and children and their ability to obtain even basic health care. I’ll give you a call later today to fill you in. It’s worse than you think. It’s also beatable, and your Republican Congressperson is one of a handful who will cast the deciding vote for the whole country. What’s the best time for me to give you a call? Thanks.

Then put aside 60 minutes tonight for calls. Call each of the people you texted at the time they requested; or if they didn’t reply, just call when it’s convenient for you. Ask if they’ve been following what’s happening, and how they feel about it. Tell them just a little about the budget bill and Medicaid, 1 to 2 sentences that will surprise them. For more background you can share with them, give my last Substack a quick read; it’s at https://davefleischer.substack.com/p/want-to-stop-trump-our-1st-best-chance

Then, directly ask them: are you willing to write a short letter to your Congressperson? It would really matter.

If they say yes, they will do that, ask if they want to consider doing what you have just done, getting together with a few friends and neighbors to write a letter together to have a greater impact.

Offer to email them this Substack so they have additional info.

Finally, remind them this matter will be decided very soon, not later than March 14 and maybe a lot sooner. Ask: can you be sure to write and email your letter this week? Take a look at your schedule; what’s the best day for you to get this done? Ask them if would be kind enough to email you a copy of whatever letter they send, and thank them for doing this, it really means a lot.

The more specific a plan any friend of yours makes with you, the more likely they will follow through.

One final thought

Sometimes people think voting is the way democracy works. But voting is only a small part of it—crucial but insufficient, because elections only happen every couple of years. When democracy is under attack, it only endures when we do more.

The only way we will make it through this tough time is if many of us do more than vote, and in particular do something targeted and focused and effective that helps our politicians listen to what we know that they have forgotten.

What gives me hope at this dark hour is how many good people want to step up and help. Thank you for being one of those people.